Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases.

Purpose: To analyse the association between the mortality during the summer 2022 and either high temperatures or the COVID-19 wave with data from the Catalan Health Care System (7.8 million people). Methods: We performed a retrospective study using publicly available data of meteorological variables, influenza-like illness (ILI) cases (including COVID-19) and deaths. The study comprises the summer months of the years 2021 and 2022. To compare the curves of mortality, ILI and temperature we calculated the z-score of each series. We assessed the observed lag between curves using the cross-correlation function. Finally, we calculated the correlation between the z-scores using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R2). Results: During the study period, 33,967 deaths were reported in Catalonia (16,416 in the summer of 2021 and 17,551 in the summer of 2022). In 2022, the observed lag and the correlation between the z-scores of temperature and all-cause deaths was 3 days and R2 = 0.86, while between ILI and all-cause deaths was 22 days and R2 = 0.21. This high correlation between temperature and deaths increased up to 0.91 when we excluded those deaths reported as COVID-19 deaths, while the correlation between ILI and non-COVID-19 deaths decreased to -0.19. No correlation was observed between non-COVID deaths and temperature or ILI cases in 2021. Conclusion: Our study suggests that the main cause of the increase in deaths during summer 2022 in Catalonia was the high temperatures and its duration. The contribution of the COVID-19 seems to be limited.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and SARS-CoV-2 variants: a two-year ambispective multicentric cohort study in Catalonia, Spain.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare but severe disease temporarily related to SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory findings of all MIS-C cases diagnosed in children < 18 years old in Catalonia (Spain) to study their trend throughout the pandemic. This was a multicenter ambispective observational cohort study (April 2020-April 2022). Data were obtained from the COVID-19 Catalan surveillance system and from all hospitals in Catalonia. We analyzed MIS-C cases regarding SARS-CoV-2 variants for demographics, symptoms, severity, monthly MIS-C incidence, ratio between MIS-C and accumulated COVID-19 cases, and associated rate ratios (RR). Among 555,848 SARS-CoV-2 infections, 152 children were diagnosed with MIS-C. The monthly MIS-C incidence was 4.1 (95% CI: 3.4-4.8) per 1,000,000 people, and 273 (95% CI: 230-316) per 1,000,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., one case per 3,700 SARS-CoV-2 infections). During the Omicron period, the MIS-C RR was 8.2 (95% CI: 5.7-11.7) per 1,000,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections, which was significantly lower (p < 0.001) than that for previous variant periods in all age groups. The median [IQR] age of MIS-C was 8 [4-11] years, 62.5% male, and 80.2% without comorbidities. Common symptoms were gastrointestinal findings (88.2%) and fever > 39 °C (81.6%); nearly 40% had an abnormal echocardiography, and 7% had coronary aneurysm. Clinical manifestations and laboratory data were not different throughout the variant periods (p > 0.05).  Conclusion: The RR between MIS-C cases and SARS-CoV-2 infections was significantly lower in the Omicron period for all age groups, including those not vaccinated, suggesting that the variant could be the main factor for this shift in the MISC trend. Regardless of variant type, the patients had similar phenotypes and severity throughout the pandemic. What is Known: • Before our study, only two publications investigated the incidence of MIS-C regarding SARS-CoV-2 variants in Europe, one from Southeast England and another from Denmark. What is New: • To our knowledge, this is the first study investigating MIS-C incidence in Southern Europe, with the ability to recruit all MIS-C cases in a determined area and analyze the rate ratio for MIS-C among SARS-CoV-2 infections throughout variant periods. • We found a lower rate ratio of MISC/infections with SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron period for all age groups, including those not eligible for vaccination, suggesting that the variant could be the main factor for this shift in the MISC trend.

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children in Western Countries? Decreasing Incidence as the Pandemic Progresses?: An Observational Multicenter International Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variations as well as immune protection after previous infections and/or vaccination may have altered the incidence of multisystemic inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). We aimed to report an international time-series analysis of the incidence of MIS-C to determine if there was a shift in the regions or countries included into the study. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international, cross-sectional study. We collected the MIS-C incidence from the participant regions and countries for the period July 2020 to November 2021. We assessed the ratio between MIS-C cases and COVID-19 pediatric cases in children <18 years diagnosed 4 weeks earlier (average time for the temporal association observed in this disease) for the study period. We performed a binomial regression analysis for 8 participating sites [Bogotá (Colombia), Chile, Costa Rica, Lazio (Italy), Mexico DF, Panama, The Netherlands and Catalonia (Spain)]. RESULTS: We included 904 cases of MIS-C, among a reference population of 17,906,432 children. We estimated a global significant decrease trend ratio in MIS-C cases/COVID-19 diagnosed cases in the previous month ( P < 0.001). When analyzing separately each of the sites, Chile and The Netherlands maintained a significant decrease trend ( P < 0.001), but this ratio was not statistically significant for the rest of sites. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first international study describing a global reduction in the trend of the MIS-C incidence during the pandemic. COVID-19 vaccination and other factors possibly linked to the virus itself and/or community transmission may have played a role in preventing new MIS-C cases.

Symptom-Based Predictive Model of COVID-19 Disease in Children.

BACKGROUND: Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is neither always accessible nor easy to perform in children. We aimed to propose a machine learning model to assess the need for a SARS-CoV-2 test in children (<16 years old), depending on their clinical symptoms. METHODS: Epidemiological and clinical data were obtained from the REDCap® registry. Overall, 4434 SARS-CoV-2 tests were performed in symptomatic children between 1 November 2020 and 31 March 2021, 784 were positive (17.68%). We pre-processed the data to be suitable for a machine learning (ML) algorithm, balancing the positive-negative rate and preparing subsets of data by age. We trained several models and chose those with the best performance for each subset. RESULTS: The use of ML demonstrated an AUROC of 0.65 to predict a COVID-19 diagnosis in children. The absence of high-grade fever was the major predictor of COVID-19 in younger children, whereas loss of taste or smell was the most determinant symptom in older children. CONCLUSIONS: Although the accuracy of the models was lower than expected, they can be used to provide a diagnosis when epidemiological data on the risk of exposure to COVID-19 is unknown.

Schools as a Framework for COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance of Children in Catalonia, Spain: A Population-Based Study.

Objective: We describe and analyze the childhood (<18 years) COVID-19 incidence in Catalonia, Spain, during the first 36 weeks of the 2020-2021 school-year and to compare it with the incidence in adults. Methods: Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were obtained from the Catalan Agency for Quality and Health Assessment. Overall, 7,203,663 SARS-CoV-2 tests were performed, of which 491,819 were positive (6.8%). We collected epidemiological data including age-group incidence, diagnostic effort, and positivity rate per 100,000 population to analyze the relative results for these epidemiological characteristics. Results: Despite a great diagnostic effort among children, with a difference of 1,154 tests per 100,000 population in relation to adults, the relative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 for <18 years was slightly lower than for the general population, and it increased with the age of the children. Additionally, positivity of SARS-CoV-2 in children (5.7%) was lower than in adults (7.2%), especially outside vacation periods, when children were attending school (4.9%). Conclusions: A great diagnostic effort, including mass screening and systematic whole-group contact tracing when a positive was detected in the class group, was associated with childhood SARS-CoV-2 incidence and lower positivity rate in the 2020-2021 school year. Schools have been a key tool in epidemiological surveillance rather than being drivers of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia, Spain.